Polzin: 6 ways to measure progress for Wisconsin football this season (2024)

It was easy to measure the progress Luke Fickell made early in his tenure at Cincinnati.

The Bearcats went 4-8 in 2017, a debut season that was so frustrating for Fickell that sometimes he spent the night in his office following defeats. Rest came much easier the following season, when Cincinnati went 11-2, won a bowl game and jumped 89 spots— from 128th to 39th— in the final Sagarin computer rankings.

Six years have passed since that impressive turnaround, and Fickell now finds himself entering his second season in charge of the University of Wisconsin football program. The program he inherited this time around was more stable, but this task is no less daunting because of the climb he chose to take in the college football hierarchy.

Intensity is part of his DNA, and yet Fickell seemed to have more of an edge to him this training camp, something that was noticeable within the first hour of the Badgers’ opening practice in Platteville. Fickell not only wants to see progress this season, he’s demanding to see it. The challenging part— for those of us on the outside, at least— will be quantifying what, if any, growth takes place.

The easiest way to measure whether a program in the early stages of change is taking steps forward is by assessing its record from one season to the next. A seven-win jump from Year 1 to Year 2 made it clear that Fickell’s Cincinnati project was well ahead of schedule and started his ascent into one of the most-wanted coaches in the country.

It’s highly doubtful the analysis will be so simple to complete in Madison. The Badgers went 7-6 against a weak schedule in 2023 and will have a difficult time topping that win total while navigating a brutal slate a year later.

Consider: Five of Wisconsin’s 12 opponents are ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll. The Badgers are underdogs in each of those games, per the opening lines from BetOnline oddsmakers: No. 5 Alabama is favored by 10 points, No. 23 Southern Cal by 8½, No. 8 Penn State by 7, No. 25 Iowa by 4 and No. 3 Oregon by 10½.

There are three other potentially tricky road games on the docket for Wisconsin, which is favored by 2½ points at Rutgers, 3 at Nebraska and 5 at Northwestern. The Badgers are double-digit favorites in their four remaining games.

Point is, it’s hard to imagine a second-year surge in wins at Wisconsin that comes close to the one Fickell had at Cincinnati. BetOnline has set the Badgers’ regular-season win total at 6½, for what it’s worth. Even if you believe Wisconsin will be a better team this season— and I believe that— it may not be reflected on the scoreboard.

6 ways to measure progress for Wisconsin football

So how can we measure whether the program is moving forward under Fickell? Let me count some ways:

•The offense establishes an identity.

Bringing Phil Longo’s version of the Air Raid offense generated all kinds of excitement last season … until that unit fizzled against actual opponents. Wisconsin averaged only 23.5 points per game— its lowest total since 2004— and a meager 5.4 yards per play.

If the offense continues to stumble, Fickell would have to seriously consider whether to scrap the Air Raid. That would mean parting ways with Longo after two years of a three-year deal and essentially starting over on offense.

The flip side to that would be Longo’s offense taking off— at least to some degree— and offering proof that Fickell has the right guy in charge of a unit that has been lackluster for years.

•The words “the offense needs to make a jump this season” were barely out of my mouth to start a question to Fickell last month when he interrupted me.

“So does the defense,” he said.

No doubt. It was hard to evaluate the job defensive coordinator Mike Tressel did last season because the Badgers were blending the old with the new when it came to both personnel and scheme.

The 2024 defense should look closer to how Fickell and Tressel envision it. Nine of the 21 players in the projected two-deep were recruited by this staff, and there’s been a massive overhaul at both inside and outside linebacker.

Just like on offense, progress on this side of the ball starts with establishing a clear identity.

•If the Badgers aren’t scrambling for a quarterback in December, that’s progress.

Fickell has said he doesn’t want to hit the transfer portal for a quarterback every season. He doesn’t believe that’s sustainable, and he’s exactly right.

But what if Braedyn Locke spends the entire season as Tyler Van Dyke’s backup or, as was the case last season, doesn’t prove to the coaching staff that he’s a surefire starter when given the opportunity? It’s early, but freshman Mabrey Mettauer looks like he’ll have a steep learning curve before he’s ready to take over the offense.

If Locke and/or Mettauer make strides in development over the next few months, it would keep Fickell and Co. from having to pursue a third consecutive one-year rental at that spot.

•Speaking of development, some big steps from players at other positions or instant impacts from freshmen would provide hope that the solid recruiting rankings Fickell and his staff have produced in their first two cycles aren’t just false hype.

Wisconsin has produced some notable wins on the recruiting trail since Fickell arrived late in 2022. Can those translate to wins on the field or at least solid evidence that the Badgers have the necessary standouts to start winning big in 2025?

Great players win games (and championships). Wisconsin has been lacking in that area, and Fickell needs to change that … and soon. Some evidence that there are stars in the pipeline would be a good start.

Veteran cornerback Ricardo Hallman put it this way when asked for signs of progress beyond a win-loss record: “Seeing the younger guys go from Phase 1 to Phase 2 and just growing and becoming better in their game,” he said.

• Fickell mentioned recently that he pointed out to his staff at a retreat that the Badgers weren’t great at anything last season. They were average in a lot of areas and didn’t have a calling card, per se.

That issue precedes Fickell at a program that used to have a reputation for being tough and physical, overcoming talent with effort and rarely beating itself.

“All that matters is wins and losses, but when it comes down to it if you’re going to lose games, you better have some (stuff) that went right that you can build off of,” defensive lineman Ben Barten said. “And if you’re going to have games that you win, you’ve got to be critical of the sloppy stuff that you did that didn’t turn into positives to make it a more clean win.”

This section can be summed up as simply as this: Wisconsin just needs to start looking better and playing harder, even if that doesn’t always translate to beating great opponents.

•But … an upset win somewhere along the way would do a lot for morale.

Fickell didn’t register a signature victory in his opening season, but to be fair, he inherited a program that hasn’t produced many of them in recent years.

The good news for the Badgers is they have plenty of chances for big wins.

“It’s going to give us a great opportunity to show who we are, not only the team but individually,” safety Hunter Wohler said. “If we show up on big stages, it makes a lot of noise, and I think we have the capability to do that.”

Why some see a 'special season' coming for Wisconsin football

Wohler deciding to return for one last run with the Badgers wasn’t surprising, but it was noteworthy. Another season in college to improve his NFL draft stock was the right call, but the Muskego native could have chased a championship or a better NIL deal elsewhere after three “mediocre seasons”— his words— for Wisconsin.

He said he loves the program, believes in Fickell and believes “something special” is brewing for the Badgers. The conviction in his voice makes it clear he’s confident it will happen this season.

So perhaps Wohler is the wrong person to ask how progress is measured if a team’s record is taken out of the equation. Make no mistake, Wohler would not view a seven-win season as a step forward, progress in other areas be damned.

“I think it’s hardto look from the outside in terms of just looking at everything but wins and losses,” Wohler said. “Realistically that’s how teams are judged, if you win or if you lose. That’s just the end of it.

“I think for us personally, though, if we go out and just play our game, we know what we have. We know the type of talent that we have. We know the locker room we have. Great coaching staff. So if we just go out and play our game and play free and leave it on the field every week, I think we’ll be pretty happy with what comes out of it.”

How about the man who hired Fickell? How will Wisconsin athletic director Chris McIntosh define growth in Year 2, when he admits “we’re going to see how we measure up” against a tough schedule?

“I’m more excited today than I was a year ago,” McIntosh said. “I’m not shy about what the expectations are and we’ve talked a lot about building a championship-caliber program, and one that’s durable, one that’s sustainable.

“There’s no easy way to do that, and we’re in the midst of doing that. On a day-to-day basis, I’ve got from my own vantage point the ability to see the progress that’s being made within our building. I’m excited, like I said, I’m more excited than I was before, because I know that we’re headed in the right direction. We’re making progress.”

Fickell believes that, too, but he also understands how tough of a sell that will be to fans if the Badgers hover around the .500 mark this season.

Year 2 growth at Cincinnati was obvious right out of the gates. The Bearcats opened the 2018 campaign with a 26-17 victory over UCLA in a game played at the Rose Bowl. The Bruins were in the midst of a transition of their own and eventually finished 3-9 in Chip Kelly’s debut season, but it was a road win over a Power Five program for Fickell and Co.

That staff had vowed to be more aggressive leading into Year 2, and it showed out of the starting gates. Winning made it easier for players to buy in, of course, and the same would happen here if the Badgers finallycan break through with a signature win in the opening month or two of the season.

“Progress is one thing, success is another,” Fickell said. “How do people look at it? Obviously everybody wants success. The hard part is to see the process and see the progress. You’ve got to obviously play and do some things to see the progress, but as a coach from within, you see a lot of progress and … you want to see it kind of manifest itself and happen on the Saturdays in some different ways.”

A 7-6 record for the Badgers in 2024 would be much better than last season’s 7-6, but it stillwould be 7-6 and leave Wisconsin fans wanting more. Evaluating progress and success will be in the eye of the beholder and could require looking beyond the scoreboard.